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May Residential Highlights
|
Property Type
|
Year
|
Month
|
New
Listings
|
Current
Inv |
Closed
Sales
|
Pending
Sales
|
Median
Price
|
Average
Price
|
Avg.
DOM
|
|
Single Family Homes
|
2008
|
May
|
321
|
1252
|
124
|
257
|
625,000
|
731,311
|
116
|
|
Single Family Homes
|
2007
|
May
|
393
|
1214
|
153
|
|
784,500
|
832,842
|
|
|
Condo/Townhomes
|
2008
|
May
|
62
|
284
|
27
|
66
|
430,000
|
450,638
|
123
|
|
Condo/Townhomes
|
2007
|
May
|
78
|
269
|
38
|
|
457,000
|
499,812
|
|
Single Family Homes
Home sales jumped up from a seven month run of record lows in May. The County's median price for May was down $51K from last month as more single-family homes priced under $500,000 sold. Many of them were on the market because the owners were in financial trouble.
As of the first week in June, there are 1252 listings. This is the most for the first week in June since 1996. Sales increased in May to 124 up from April's 107 sales
The overall Unsold Inventory Index for the entire county declined again to 10.5 months, from 11.2 months 30 days ago. This is the lowest the Index has been since August 2007, when it was 10.2 months.
Here are some other areas:
Capitola; 12 months (was 10.8 months 30 days ago)
Aptos: 9.4 months (was 8.3)
Santa Cruz: 7.6 months (was 9.0)
Scotts Valley:10.7months (was 18.2)
San Lorenzo Valley: 15.7 months (was 14.7)
Live Oak: 10.8 months (was 18.9)
Soquel: 13.5 months (was 11.1)
Watsonville: 16.5 months (was 20.6)
|
Single Family Homes
Inventory in Months
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
|
January
|
2.6
|
6.8
|
7.0
|
16.3
|
|
February
|
3.0
|
7.4
|
6.4
|
16.6
|
|
March
|
2.5
|
5.3
|
6.8
|
16.1
|
|
April
|
3.0
|
5.4
|
8.2
|
11.2
|
|
May
|
3.2
|
6.1
|
7.7
|
10.5
|
|
June
|
2.8
|
6.1
|
7.8
|
|
|
July
|
4.3
|
9.5
|
9.5
|
|
|
August
|
3.7
|
7.2
|
9.4
|
|
|
September
|
4.0
|
9.0
|
14.4
|
|
|
October
|
5.2
|
8.0
|
12
|
|
|
November
|
5.3
|
5.0
|
13.1
|
|
|
December
|
4.3
|
4.4
|
12.4
|
|
Condominiums
There were 25 sales of condominiums and townhouses in May, up from 18 sales in April. This is the fewest number of “May” sales in at least 11 years.
The Unsold Inventory Index in May decreased to 11.8 months from 16.3 months in April.
The median sales price for condominiums and townhouses in May was $430,000. The median price for condominiums and townhouses is generally inconsistent because of the small number of sales.
The average sales price in April was $450,638 . The average price for condominiums and townhouses is generally inconsistent because of the small number of sales.
|
Condo/Townhomes
Inventory in Months
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
|
January
|
1.6
|
4.7
|
8.3
|
21.8
|
|
February
|
1.8
|
5.5
|
6.7
|
25.5
|
|
March
|
1.6
|
5.7
|
5.1
|
14.5
|
|
April
|
1.8
|
5.5
|
6.1
|
16.3
|
|
May
|
2.1
|
6.5
|
7.1
|
11.8
|
|
June
|
1.7
|
6.5
|
7.5
|
|
|
July
|
2.6
|
6.8
|
9.9
|
|
|
August
|
2.3
|
7.1
|
10.1
|
|
|
September
|
2.8
|
8.1
|
12.4
|
|
|
October
|
5.0
|
6.7
|
10.7
|
|
|
November
|
3.8
|
9.3
|
10.0
|
|
|
December
|
4.5
|
3.9
|
13.9
|
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How to Identify What Kind of Real Estate Market You’re In
What is months supply? Basically, months supply is the ratio of inventory to sales. And what it tells us is how many months the stock of homes for sale would last, if sales continued at their current rate.
For those of us that need to see a formula:
#of homes for sale on the market
---------------------------------- = Months Supply
# of homes sold that month
Housing markets never stay down, they come back. Is now the time to buy?
By Carole Rodoni
Yes, right now the housing market is battered and bruised. Loans are harder to get, some areas are still in decline, sellers are stressed and buyers are hesitant.
So how did we get to this point?
Post 9/11 the housing market enjoyed robust appreciation, almost 46% - perhaps too much, too soon, too fast. Thousands of first time buyers found access to easy financing and many should or would have never qualified in a saner world.
Meanwhile, the global thirst for yield and the creativity of Wall Street pushed the demand to buy riskier loans. So investors demanded, Wall Street created, bankers loosened, brokers complied, buyers signed and we all roared with praise and approval.
But alas, most commodities including houses are prone to cycles. Yet a boom is not a bubble, land in permanent, limited and in demand - we can live without stock (the tech bubble) but we all need a place to live.
So rapid rates of appreciation are great but they're not perpetually sustainable. The history of real estate proves this. At the same time, declines of great magnitude are limited and largely constrained to where foreclosures and short sales are the majority of the current market. And remember, not all areas are in decline.
So what direction is up?
There is nothing wrong with getting on the train at the station; just make sure it takes you where you want to go. Remember, the statistics you see are all one year versus the prior year and they take on big generalities (whole states, whole counties). Instead, you must look at specifics to get a real feel for the market: the area you are in or looking to buy in, the inventory, the sales, how prices are holding, is lending available, etc.
By the numbers - they tell the Real Story
No one can truthfully say housing has appreciated at an average annual number of "X" then say this month is off by 8% compared to last year. Why? Housing numbers are not only cyclical, they are seasonal to boot. And statistics need to compare "like periods" to be realistic.
As for foreclosures; yes, there may be close to 2 million homes going into foreclosure but there are 110 million homes in this country and 46% of those homes are owned free and clear.
Also, in the San Francisco Bay Area, annual appreciation has been 8.4% adjusted for inflation taking into account good markets and bad.
The Bottom Line
Let's just look at the facts. Prices have fallen in many areas, home sellers are abundant, interest rates are still low, the vast majority of foreclosures are concentrated in 5 states, fear and panic can drive the market but at this point, is it driving us in the right direction?
Remember there are two sides to every transaction - one selling, one buying. And right now the market favors the buying side. So while many will avoid the market, some will realize the time is right. Why? Get in; get all the tax benefits, give it time to appreciate (at 3-5 years) and you will do fine. Others will look back and say "if only we had bought back then."
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